Final predictions rundown on the winner of Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Vols

Final predictions rundown on the winner of Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Vols

Saturday afternoon in the unfriendly confines of Neyland Stadium, the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Vols will find out what they are. In the way, long-ago history of SEC football, Tennessee legend, General Robert Neyland said about Tennessee players, “You never know what a football player is made of until he plays Alabama.” Perhaps that will be true for players on both teams Saturday afternoon.

If the oddsmakers are correct, the two teams are not separated by much. As of Thursday night, the spread held at Alabama -3.5 points. Had the Vols not lost their important defensive player to a season-ending injury, I’d call the game a pick’em. With so many inexperienced Alabama Crimson Tide players in key roles, the Tennessee crowd must be worth at least four points.

It was easy to predict a Tennessee win after the Alabama Crimson Tide mucked around with South Carolina. ESPN Studio host, Booger McFarland did just that, and his co-hosts Dari Nowkhah and Dan Orlovsky didn’t disagree. McFarland said it was panic time in Tuscaloosa.

Booger picking against the Crimson Tide is not an outlier. Other well-known pundits, including a few not just doing it for clicks, are predicting a Tennessee win. They could be right, but other ‘more solid’ sources are predicting an Alabama win. Bill Connelly in his Week 8 SP+ picks, predicted Alabama 29 – Tennessee 26.

Everything Josh Pate said about the game is worth a watch in the video below. In summary, Pate thinks the deciding factor is which offense makes the most explosive plays and based on that he is “slightly rolling with Alabama” to win and cover. A good additional tip from Pate is during the game an “Extended Drive Watch” could be telling. If the Vols can produce long drives, even just producing field goals, wearing down the Alabama defense could turn the game to Tennessee. Pate also points out the Vols offense could “click” at any time. I think Pate is correct, but in Knoxville, the Alabama offense may ‘re-click’ with an explosion similar to the one that stunned Georgia.

One more prediction is solely from Jeff Sagarin’s computer model. Through Week 7 of the season, Sagarin’s multiple calculation models, along with ESPN’s FPI have performed best at game predictions. Sagarin’s computer model gives Alabama a 51% probability of winning. ESPN’s FPI is slightly more bullish on the Alabama Crimson Tide at 53.9%.

An Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction

My hunch is the computer models and Pate are right. Alabama has the better roster, but at this point, performance in recent games has not matched the Crimson Tide’s talent. That will have to change in Knoxville. Across decades of following Alabama Football, in times of feast and famine, 24-36 hours before a kickoff I have almost always believed the Crimson Tide would win. My tunnel-vision-driven prediction is Alabama 27 – Tennessee 24.